HOUSING MARKET UPDATE: WHERE’S THE TSUNAMI? – KEVIN WARD
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What’s happening to the real estate market?
Everything feels calm now but the real estate tsunami is still coming. And by the time it hits, it’s going to be too late to prepare.
How do you prepare for what is coming?
1. Pay attention to your market. Study market statistics, people’s moving patterns, etc. Watch my previous blog about this
2. Pay attention to the real economy. This is not the stock market. It’s about income, consumer confidence, and debt. These impact the cost of living.
3. Get your mind, money, and market strategy ready.
a. Keep your head in the game even when other people are panicking. Crisis always creates opportunity for those who are prepared.
b. Be prepared with your money. Sell houses, make money and keep money so you’re financially secure.
c. Work only with highly motivated clients and price your listings right.
If you want to get the best training on what’s happening (and what will happen) in the market, join me for 3 days of live virtual, interactive training at Agent Mastery Live Virtual 2020. Click here for more details.
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Kevin Ward is a real estate coach, speaker, and trainer at YESMasters.com and #1 Bestselling author of "The Book of YES: The Ultimate Real Estate Agent Conversation Guide."
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I think people are expecting the crash to come much sooner than it really is. I agree that if jobs haven’t come back before mortgage forbearance ends, we will see a drop in prices.
I originally thought we could count on the govt to extend mortgage forbearance and prevent foreclosures until the market is fully recovered, but with how they are handling negotiations for the 2nd stimulus package, I wouldn’t count on the government for anything.
You just take words out of my mouth that’s what I been telling people
This time 2021 will be the real beginning, but the bottom could be 20 years like Japan 1990-2010
PROSPERITY
It’s killing me so bad to sell my house, sit on a pile of cash and see home prices raise and sell so quickly. I’m so scared that all I would be able to buy is a crap house when I sold a nice beautiful home.
Funny enough we were in the same situation back in 2016. Sold our nice house for fairly cheap and it has doubled in price since. Now we are buying another house for twice as much 4 years later.
As time goes by you’ll realize you did the perfect thing
vincent temperino thank you so much. I’m tempted to just get in. But I know your right.
@RigoRocks23 probably 5 to be fair haha
PROSPERITY
BONANZA
Well put Kevin, I see the signs of the tsunami yes it could be minor but I certainly don’t subscribe those in the real estate who say “all is well buy now as int. is low”
With the Fed signaling low rates for years to come, don’t expect a big drop off in prices! Fiscal stimulus should continue because politicians aren’t afraid of deficits any longer. We will see a persistent erosion in the dollar, lifting asset classes valuations like housing. Don’t assume the market will tank!
R Henry we shall see.
Your right Kevin. Remember 2006-2007 there was a lot of “calmness”. Not much happening. Then the whole thing fell apart. Also low interest rates like now.
Great info thanks- My report from the field- I live on Long Island- homes are selling quickly and there is a great demand mostly due to people fleeing from the five boroughs of NYC. They are looking to relocate in the suburban, even rural areas radial to NYC. Question in my mind is who is buying their properties and what happens to local property values once this demand settles. My two cents.
There is no demand boost, just a supply reduction. No one wants to leave the house they like during a pandemic where they don’t ahve to make a payment.
What blows my mind is it’s been 6 months since covid hit hard, yet prices are at an all time high. On homes, rent, cars, rv’s etc etc everything in Utah is top top dollar even as of today. I’m trying to be patient waiting for falling home prices but it’s getting really hard at this point! Just hoping the fed stops the cash and prizes sometime so this market can get a reality check.
Thank you, Kevin. This was a lot of awesome information.
Let’s be honest, most of these recently booming sales are the Spring home buying and selling season making up for loss time…
It’s gonna be more of a K-Shape recovery in my opinion.
Good tips Kevin. Although, I dunno though when the Tsunami in coming so that I can get to advise my sellers and buyers to make a move. They just want to wait and see what happens.
I’m a broker in Sarasota FL. Booming market here right now. Tough to find a decent starter home under $300k. My prediction on the downturn: we’ll see first signs of distress by the end of the first quarter of 2021 – intensifying as the year progresses. Crash in full swing by fall 2021. Price correction 10% minimum.
Funny you say that. I live in Tampa bay and finally saved up enough to buy a home after my divorce. I don’t see it going down here anytime soon. The majority of people moving down here are buying homes for cash. So as long as they can pay for water and keep the lights on they’re good. No mortgage to foreclose on.
@Mike L I just bought two homes in Sarasota under $200k. One is a single I purchased for 92k and rent for $950.00 a month. There are deals out there. Just have to know where to look. joel@joelfreis.com send me a message and happy to help. Also in 2008 market look like it was strong and becoming unaffordable. But when it hit, it came hard and prices fell greatly. I do not think we will see the same drop in value because most people have equity in their homes at this time.
Yeah, that’s the conventional thinking. However, you have no idea what legislation will come along, what the Fed will do, and will this time investors take a haircut.
@Joel Freis Good point, but those deferred forbearance payments are being added to the loan balance and therefore eating into equity.🤔
Evictions are not down. In Nevada we are expecting over 400,000 that need to be processed. It’s a mess here. The spike in home sales are because people know it takes longer to foreclose than it does to evict. Get in now before the the ball gets rolling.
The cycles Mr. Ward describes are typically caused by the Fed, economists sometimes say “bull markets don’t end, they are killed”, meaning the Fed typically raises interest rates, and kills bull markets. In 2020, we have an ego-driven President that wants to keep the market going, ad infinitum, who knows if it will work. Rock bottom interest rates, low inventory, real estate as a safe-haven, are keeping houses RISING. I think supply is bound to increase, and there must be some “reckoning” in the real economy. But if you are shopping in areas like California, rich people (home owners) are affected far less than poor people (renters). I think the doomsday sayers need to take a big step back, and moderate their previous forecasts.
I am going to be relocating and semi-retiring in 2021 in different areas of the same state. So in theory I will be selling and buying in about the same time period. The logic in this video seems to be suggesting that I sell now, then rent till the market crashes and houses are cheaper, but my guess is that if this crash happens as projected, rent costs will climb dramatically because of supply and demand. So I guess I am back to selling then buying in about the same time period.
Staying focused and stacking literally every penny so when after the tsunami hits and the prices hit the bottom I can come on in and snag the one I want!! Looking to go from the big city to small town out of state! Bye NYC! 👋🏾
Smart cookie 🍪
Fantastic video!! It truthfully explains not only the real picture of the real estate market, but also the economy as a whole. I hope you make a similar video to this about the Multifamily market.
A lot of these jobs are also lost due to the accelerated automation companies are doing in response to loss of jobs. I’d be curious to see the hourly wage of those unemployment claims to see which jobs were laid off the most. Is it a lot of lower-wage jobs or actual careers?
I expect all this in Europe/The Netherlands (where I live) a bit later. Everything is on life support now. Companies can keep their employees just because the stimulus for companies. But… companies were just forbidden to fire someone when they took this check. So they had no choice… But the government can’t keep up giving free money to companies. There is even a historic drop in company bankruptcies at this moment! Just because of that stimulus. But the new stimulus is a lot more sober, now people can get fired and soon the stimulus will end as well… Homeprices are still BOOMING here… But I’m afraid that things will change within a year…
Same thing here in Canada 🇨🇦 my friend. I live in Vancouver and I think things will take a little longer to start “falling down” in the real Estate market. But our reality in this province is quite particular… I wouldn’t like to see, China 🇨🇳 becoming the official owner of Vancouver throughout the years..
I am just a condo owner, not a REAgent but still can sense things happening in the future.
Finally some one with the facts a truth teller keep bringing it on 2008 will be the worm up for what is to come in housing it will be ugly for a long time .
I’m watching months after this video originally posted, and I don’t think we will see a housing burst anytime soon. Yes, the market is pumped with synthetic money, but half of the UD dollars in circulation were printed in the past year. The US dollar lost about 50% of its value, and we haven’t seen an immediate reflection of this yet. So we actually should be seeing houses continue to spike in value.